Brandenburg election: SPD narrowly defeats AfD
In the elections in the German state of Brandenburg, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has won a narrow victory against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which had a very strong showing in state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. The SPD’s coalition partners at the federal level, the Greens and the FDP, failed to enter the state parliament, unlike the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which could now form a government with the SPD. Commentators analyse the mood in Germany — and how the results will affect the political future of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Reprieve for the struggling chancellor
The ruling coalition in Berlin has been dealt a severe blow, writes Gazeta Wyborcza:
“Woidke’s victory in Brandenburg, however, is good news for Scholz, who can now avoid a debate about whether he still has a mandate to govern Germany in view of his party’s poor ratings. The SPD and the Greens are paying a high price for the coalition at the federal level. The same goes for the FDP, which performed so poorly in the Brandenburg elections that it wasn’t even included in the polls. If it does turn out that only four parties enter the state parliament, negotiations to form a government could prove complicated. The key player will then probably be the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance.”
Clear show of dissatisfaction
Together the AfD and BSW won almost half of the votes, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung underlines:
“Only by mustering all their strength did the SPD manage to relegate the AfD to second place. The right-wing party is therefore once again at the centre of the political debate — and in Brandenburg, which was long considered to have a stable left-wing bias. ... If you add the votes that Sahra Wagenknecht’s alliance secured from a standing start, almost 45 percent of Brandenburg’s electorate voted for parties on the left and right. East German voters have once again made their dissatisfaction with federal politics and the established political programme more than clear.”
A narrow escape
The result gives Scholz a minor reprieve, The Economist suspects:
“In the run-up to the election the talk in Berlin was that he might be replaced as the SPD’s candidate in the federal campaign, much as in America the similarly lacklustre Joe Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris. The most likely Germanic version of Ms Harris would be Boris Pistorius, the popular defence minister. His approval rating is currently 53 percent; Mr Scholz’s is just 18 percent, according to a survey in September. ... The SPD’s narrow win in Brandenburg may have given him a reprieve, perhaps only temporary, from the talk of his imminent replacement as the party’s candidate for chancellor next year.”
The real winner is Woidke
The results testify to growing polarisation, La Stampa frets:
“There is a real risk that many people’s sigh of relief will get stuck in their throats. Because the real winner of this election round is Brandenburg’s Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke. ... He has won despite the fact that his state is objectively shifting to the right and that the chancellor was of no help whatsoever. ... Not only that, but with his call to arms based on the Macron model — ‘It’s either me or the right’ — he may have achieved a positive result personally, but he has also polarised the political debate to such an extent that he has taken voters away from the Greens and even the CDU (which has never performed so poorly).”
A reflection of the mood in the country as a whole
The Salzburger Nachrichten sees Brandenburg as representative of all Germany:
“The federal state that surrounds Berlin like Lower Austria surrounds Vienna is a good indicator of the mood in the country. A mixture of West and East Germans live in Berlin’s suburbs, ex-GDR elites as well as those who lost out after reunification, old West Berliners and newcomers from West Germany. The narrative about East Germany doesn’t work here the way it does in Saxony and Thuringia. In this respect, the AfD and BSW boom and the decline of the old parties are a reflection of the situation in Germany as a whole.”
