Iran’s attack: how will Israel respond?
Having fended off Iran’s drone and missile attack, Israel’s war cabinet met to discuss what comes next, but has yet to announce a decision. The military Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has said there will a response but gave no indication of time, scope or means. US President Joe Biden has urged restraint. Europe’s press weighs up the options and probable outcomes.
Netanyahu has already won, but...
Le Figaro weighs up the situation:
“Benjamin Netanyahu’s government could content itself with an overwhelming military and diplomatic victory: not only Washington, but also London, Paris and even Amman have rushed to its aid. ... But the affront of the direct attack remains; Iran’s assumed position as an irreconcilable enemy of Israel and the persistence of this perceived existential threat. Israel may see this as an opportunity which increases the legitimacy of an attack on Iranian territory, and in particular on the facilities of its military nuclear programme. ... Has the risk-benefit ratio shifted sufficiently for Netanyahu to give in to this old temptation?”
Avoid a conflagration
Matei Martin, editor-in-chief of the weekly Observator Cultural, hopes that Israel will exercise restraint:
“From the American perspective, another Israeli strike against Iran harbours the danger that the war, which until now has largely been confined to the Gaza Strip, will escalate into a regional conflagration. Despite Washington’s attempts to de-escalate, an Israeli response cannot be ruled out – in fact, Israeli hardliners say it is unavoidable. ... The Israeli ambassador to the UN invoked the ‘right to retaliation’ two days after the attack. But wasn’t international law created precisely because world peace is unachievable if everyone insists on the right to retaliate?”
Security requires de-escalation
Israel should listen to the US and make a point of isolating Iran and Hamas, the Financial Times advises:
“It requires Israel to agree to a ceasefire in the besieged strip and secure the release of Israeli hostages. It also envisages giving Palestinians a political horizon, with concrete steps towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. In return, Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, would normalise relations with Israel. That would lay the foundations for a US-backed, Israeli-Arab security coalition of the sort that Israel has long desired. ... Israel’s security, and the alliances it needs, cannot be forged if it does not wind down a Gaza war.”
Clear conflict of interests for Israeli government
La Stampa also sees Israel’s interests best served by a coalition with the Arab states, but points out:
“This strategic interest clashes with Netanyahu’s tactical interest in delaying or avoiding his own political downfall. He therefore seems more inclined to continue supporting the Israeli ultra-right, for whom the possibility of a Palestinian state is anathema. And the decision as to how to resolve this dilemma will largely determine the chances of containing Iran’s designs in the region.”
There must be consequences
Der Spiegel takes issue with all the exhortations for Israel to exercise restraint:
“They ignore the fact that Iran (and Hezbollah) fired only a fraction of their dangerous ballistic missiles in the attack. A future attack could be far more powerful. If only to limit this threat — not to mention the nuclear one — Israel will be obliged to launch a counterattack that makes it clear to the Iranian leadership that Saturday night has consequences. How, when, with what target and by what means will be the big questions in the coming weeks.”
Penalise risky response
The West must exert pressure on Israel, demands Trouw:
“It is time for Biden to make military aid for Israel contingent on tough conditions. The West has shown great understanding for Israel’s demands and wishes, but sadly this is not being reciprocated. As a sovereign country, Israel has the right to chart its own course, but the same principle applies to the West. So if Israel decides to carry out risky operations again, turning a deaf ear to its allies’ advice, it must be prepared to face the consequences alone — and without Western help.”
Consequences for the global economy
What Israel does now will also have consequences for Europe’s energy supply, writes Kauppalehti:
“Unofficially, Iran has announced that its massive missile and drone attack marks the end of this series of retaliatory strikes, but it is by no means certain that Israel will take the same view. ... Iran is currently the fourth largest oil producer in Opec. ... Israel could launch a retaliatory attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure, which could affect global oil supplies, prices and, above all, the Eurozone economy on a scale that goes beyond Iran’s importance as an oil producer.”
